Bloomington, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXUS63 KIND 220522
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1222 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend through the weekend into early next week,
with highs back in the upper 40s to upper 50s for the first half of
the work week

- Breezy at times early next week

- A low chance for rain late Monday night with more substantial
  chances mid week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

- Clear and cold overnight

Quiet weather ahead overnight. Surface analysis late this evening
shows a large area of high pressure in place over the Ohio Valley.
GOES16 shows clear skies across Indiana with this feature. Water
Vapor showed cold northwest flow in place aloft, with flow from
western Canada spilling to the Great Lakes and middle Atlantic
States.

Little change is expected overnight. The large surface high pressure
system will drift to the southeast but still maintain its control on
Indiana`s weather as subsidence will remain in play. Forecast
soundings and time heights continue to show a dry column overnight.
Thus clear mostly skies will be expected. A relatively new snow pack
along with clear skies and light wind will allow low temperatures to
fall into the single digits to around 10F. Overall, ongoing forecast
handles that well.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 314 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

The end of the extended Arctic blast is in sight! A slight
moderating trend has begun today and will continue over the next
several days as surface high pressure shifts to the east and low
level flow turns southwesterly.

Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show mainly clear
skies across Indiana with high pressure centered over Southern
Illinois. GOES Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB still shows a
widespread snow pack over nearly the entire Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Snow has a lower albedo than bare ground; therefore any location
that has snow on the ground will see a slower moderating trend.
Due to the increasing late February sun angle, snow melt will
continue during the day today despite temperatures only in the
20s... and further snowmelt will occur tomorrow as highs are
expecting to rise above freezing for the first time in a week.
Snowpack should be completely melted by later this weekend, having
no impact on temperatures going forward.

Despite the dwindling snow pack, there should be enough snow on the
ground to influence lows tonight. Surface high pressure slowly
slides by overnight resulting in optimal conditions for radiational
cooling. This set up plus the snowpack should lead to temperatures
plummeting after sunset into the teens and single digits. Mid to
high clouds may move in overhead towards sunrise and during the
morning hours tomorrow, holding lows steady in the upper single
digits to low teens. However, would not be surprised to see typical
cold spots in low lying, wind sheltered areas to drop closer to zero,
specifically in the Wabash River Valley.

Tomorrow...

High pressure and low level ridging shift eastward on Saturday with
flow becoming southwesterly to westerly...working to further erode
the arctic airmass in place. Clearing skies, sunshine and better
surface heating will lead to more efficient mixing tomorrow into a
25 kt low level jet resulting in winds 10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph
at times. Mixing and slight "warm" air advection will work to get
highs above freezing for the first time in about a week, with mid
30s possible along and south of I-70 and areas where snowpack
completely melts.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 314 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

The long term period looks to be largely dry, aside from a couple
chances of rain next week, and much warmer than the past few days.
Through midweek there will be a warming trend, followed by a slight
cooldown.

Central Indiana will sit on the peripheral backside of a surface
high pressure system which will help to both keep any
precipitation suppressed and advect in warmer air to the region
from the SW. Highs for the first half of the week will be in the
50s with lows in the 30s. A passing upper wave late Monday night
to Tuesday morning could bring a small chance of rain across the
north, but for now the models are showing the much of the moisture
should stay closer to the low situated over the upper Great Lakes
and model soundings suggest a dry low to mid layer that could
prove to be too much to overcome for precipitation to hit the
ground. Due to uncertainties, have kept the low PoPs given by
guidance.

Breezy afternoons are also expected for the first half of the new
work week as a deepening PBL taps into moderate flow aloft and
promotes gustiness. Gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph look likely.

There is another chance of rain mid to late week as another upper
short wave moves through the region, but timing of this event is
less certain as there lacks agreement between models for now. Once
this system passes cooler air will move back in, bringing closer to
normal temperatures to end the week. Beyond the 7 day forecast there
are signals for another blast of cold air as we enter March so will
continue to monitor this as it gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

High pressure will be in control at the surface throughout the
period, leading to mostly clear skies, unrestricted visibility, and
light overnight winds. Winds during the daytime will be around 8-
12KT, and throughout the period, winds will be generally be from 210-
230 degrees. An upper level wave passing to our south will allow a
bit of mid or high cloud to slide across the area today, but this
will be of no consequence.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Nield